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Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots NFL match analysis, predictions and odds

Thanksgiving football hits our screens on Thursday in a Week 12 match between the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) and New England Patriots (6-4) at the US Bank Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings enter the matchup up in first place in NFC North after collecting eight wins from 10 games so far in the regular season, while six wins in as many outings leave the New England Patriots third in the AFC East. The oddsmakers certainly favor the Minnesota Vikings for victory when the New England Patriots come knocking on Thursday. However, with the visitors coming off the back of some good wins, they might just prove to be a tough nut to crack at the US Bank Stadium.

Form Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings will want to prove last week’s 3-40 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys was nothing more than a slight bump on the road, as they’ve been in excellent form otherwise. They’ve bagged four wins in their past five matches, leaving them 8-2 in the last 10 overall.

The offense has performed to its usual standards of late, putting up 22.8 points in the last five matches, which is on par with the 22.9 points average the Minnesota Vikings have achieved for this season. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The hosts have given up 25.8 points in the previous five outings, which is more or less on par with the 23.1 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

The Minnesota Vikings are touted as a potential Super Bowl challenger for this season. While it’s still early days, things are going according to plan so far. The hosts hold the second seed in the NFC Conference, leaving them set for a spot in the January playoffs. Until then, the aim will be to strengthen their position by either maintaining or improving their current seeding.

Form New England Patriots

Form is strong for the New England Patriots, who beat New York Jets by a 10-3 scoreline last time out, thereby extending their winning streak to three matches. Their overall regular season record is now 6-4 and 3-2 on the road.

The New England Patriots will bring a middle-of-the-park offense for their latest game on the road, having scored 21.3 points per game this season. On the defensive side of the ball, there has been no letup whatsoever. The visitors boast one of the stingiest defenses in the entire country, allowing just 16.9 points per game for this season, and have remained formidable in the past five games, having only given up 14.2 points on average.

In 2021, the New England Patriots came home in second place in the AFC East standings after going 10-8 across all games. The visitors naturally hope to go even better this season. However, like every other team in the NFL, sealing a spot in the playoffs during this regular season is the first and foremost priority for now.


The previous matchup between these two franchises ended in a 24-10 win for the New England Patriots at the Gillette Stadium in December 2018. The US Bank Stadium has been a great hunting ground for the New England Patriots in recent years. They’ve won their past two road games in this series, and are 4-0 in the last four overall.

In their past four head-to-head games, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off 10.5 points on average per game, whereas New England Patriots managed 28.25 points per match.




We’re taking the Minnesota Vikings (1.60) for the outright win on the moneyline. The 4-1 hosts seem to relish going up against AFC East opposition, especially at the US Bank Stadium. They’ve won six of their last six home matchups against AFC East teams. Odds of 1.60 suggests they have a 63% chance of adding another victory to their haul.


The oddsmakers are siding with the Minnesota Vikings (-110) on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as 3.0-point favorites over the New England Patriots for Thursday’s showdown. In the last four matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 17.8 points.

The Minnesota Vikings struggled to make home-field advantage count against the New England Patriots in their past two matchups, losing two times at the US Bank Stadium by an average losing margin of 23.5 points. The hosts are also 2-4 ATS in the past six games at home and 4-5 ATS overall from their previous 10 games.

Even away from home, the New England Patriots look too good to pass up on the spread. Backing the visitors has paid off in each of their last three games, and we’re tempted to go down this route. The visitors are 3-2 ATS from their six most recent road trips, as well as 6-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.


There was an average of 38.75 points scored in the previous four clashes between the Minnesota Vikings and the New England Patriots.

Siding with the Under (-109) seems a worthwhile bet. The total is set at 42.5, and with the two teams boasting an average points total of 38.75 from their last four matchups, it seems going under is the way to go.

The total has averaged 46.0 points in the Minnesota Vikings’ ten most recent games, as well as 47.2 points in their last five at home. Looking back on the last five games on home soil for the Minnesota Vikings, the total went over two times. They are 4-6 against the total overall from their previous ten matches.

As for the New England Patriots, the average total has been 38.2 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 40.2 points in the last five on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the New England Patriots’ past nine matchups against teams from the NFC North.

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