The Washington Commanders (6-5) play the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at FedEx Field on 27th November in Week 12 of NFL. A tally of six wins from 11 games leaves the Washington Commanders with a divisional ranking of fourth in the NFC East, while the Atlanta Falcons are second in the NFC South after collecting five victories out of a possible 11. The visitors arrive at the FedEx Field as big outsiders to stop the Washington Commanders. The home side should be able to book this one as a win, considering how highly the oddsmakers favor them.
Form Washington Commanders
Taking on the Washington Commanders at the FedEx Field is no mean feat at the moment. The hosts have won four of their last five home games straight up and arrive on the back of a 23-10 win against the Houston Texans.
The home offense is on song at the moment, having averaged 22.4 points in the last five matches, which is more than the 19.5 points that the Washington Commanders have posted as their season average so far. On the other hand, the defense has really stepped up against opposing offenses of late. In the past five outings, the hosts have only given up 17.6 points on average. This is better than how they’ve fared all season, having allowed 20.3 points per game in comparison.
In 2021, the Washington Commanders came home in third place in the NFC East standings after going 7-10 across all games. The hosts naturally hope to go even better this season. However, like every other team in the NFL, sealing a spot in the playoff during this regular season is the first and foremost priority for now.
Form Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons snapped out of a two-game losing streak last time out by beating the Chicago Bears 27-24. The victory improved their record from the past ten games to 5-5. They are also 1-4 in the last five on the road.
In terms of points added, it’s fair to say the Atlanta Falcons have a strong and consistent offense. The unit has put 22.6 points on board in the last five matches after all, while averaging 23.5 points for this season. On the other side of the ball, the defense has recently leaked one too many points for our liking. The visitors have given up 27.6 points in the previous five outings, which is more than the 24.9 points they’ve allowed per game throughout the regular season.
2021 was a year to forget for the Atlanta Falcons. The visitors failed to reach the playoffs, having finished third in the NFC South at 7-10, and are expected to miss the NFL postseason again, having gone 5-6 so far in the current campaign.
The Washington Commanders claimed a strong 30-34 win, when they were last faced with the Atlanta Falcons. This encounter took place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That said, the Atlanta Falcons are on a three-match winning streak on the road at FedEx Field and boast a 7-2 record in the last nine matchups of this series.
In their last nine head-to-head games, the Washington Commanders managed 19.67 points on average per game, while the Atlanta Falcons put 25.44 points on board.
Take the Atlanta Falcons (2.67) for the underdog win. Yes, the Washington Commanders are favored on the moneyline at 1.52, but their struggles at home suggest nothing is set in stone as far as this matchup is concerned. After losing three of their past five home games, the hosts are 2-3 SU at the FedEx Field. The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, have won the last three matchups in this series.
The oddsmakers are siding with the Washington Commanders (-110) on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as the 4.0-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons for Sunday’s showdown. In the last nine matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 9.3 points.
The Washington Commanders have covered the spread in five of their last six games. However, the hosts have only covered the spread in half of their past six home rounds and are 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten overall.
The past three visits to the FedEx Field have gone rather well for the Atlanta Falcons, having bagged three wins by an average winning margin of 13.7 points. In their past 10 matches, the Atlanta Falcons went 6-4 ATS and also ended up 4-3 ATS from their seven most recent road trips.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last nine games between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons produced an average of 45.11 points.
Going for the Over (-110) might be worth a shot, with the total currently set at 43.0 points, as the total average points from the previous five meetings between the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons was 45.2 points.
The total has averaged 38.7 points in the Washington Commanders’ ten most recent games, as well as 40.2 points in their last five at home. Looking back on the last five games on home soil for the hosts, the total went over two times. They are 3-7 against the total overall from their previous ten matches.
As for the Atlanta Falcons, the average total has been 48.0 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 47.2 points in the last five on the road. Also worth mentioning is the fact that exactly half the previous 10 away games for the Atlanta Falcons went over. All in all, they are 5-5 over/under in their last 10 games, whether home or away.