The Buffalo Bills (9-3) play the New York Jets (7-5) on Sunday, 11 at 13:00 at Highmark Stadium. The AFC East race is taking shape ahead of this Week 14 divisional matchup. The Buffalo Bills hold first place in the divisional standings, having gone 9-3 after 12 regular season matches. Sitting third is the New York Jets, who are 7-5 from 12 outings. The Buffalo Bills proved they’re still worthy of being a Super Bowl contender with a 10-24 win over the New England Patriots, and they are favorites (-500) to take another win against the New York Jets.
Form Buffalo Bills
Form-wise, the Buffalo Bills are looking strong on the back of three consecutive wins. A 10-24 triumph over the New England Patriots last week extended their winning streak, leaving them 7-3 in their last 10 matches overall.
The offense has continued to torment opposing defenses consistently, averaging 26.0 points in the last five matches. This leaves the Buffalo Bills’ tally for the season at 27.8 points overall. The defense, on the other hand, hasn’t been as effective in putting the brakes on opposing offenses of late. In the past five outings, 22.2 points have been lost on average. This is more than the home team usually gives up, having allowed a decent 17.4 points per game this season.
In 2021, the Buffalo Bills came home in first place in the AFC East standings after going 12-7 across all games. The hosts naturally hope to go even better this season. However, like every other team in the NFL, sealing a spot in the playoff during this regular season is the first and foremost priority for now.
Form New York Jets
The New York Jets made a swift return to losing ways last time out by slipping to a 27-22 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings, leaving them 6-4 from the past ten games overall and 3-2 in the last five on the road.
The away offense has been struggling lately. In the last five matches, the unit has only put up 18.6 points on average, which is less than the New York Jets’ season average of 21.0 points. On the defensive side of the ball, there has been no letup whatsoever. The visitors boast one of the stingiest defenses in the entire country, allowing just 18.6 points per game for this season, and have remained formidable in the past five games, having only given up 17.2 points on average.
The New York Jets have been one of the surprise packages this season. Despite being billed as an unlikely bet in the AFC playoff race, the visitors hold the seventh seed in the AFC Conference in Week 14, leaving them set for an unexpected postseason berth this coming January.
The New York Jets were able to avenge their 27-10 defeat against the Buffalo Bills in January 2022 by winning the latest meeting between the two teams 20-17 at the MetLife Stadium. That said, the Buffalo Bills have been on the winning end of the scoreboard four times from their past five matchups against the New York Jets, leaving them with an overall record of 4-1.
In their past 25 head-to-head games, the Buffalo Bills pulled off 23.92 points on average per game, whereas New York Jets managed 21.68 points per match.
Take the Buffalo Bills (-500) for the outright win on the moneyline. The oddsmakers rate their chances of success on Sunday at 83%, and given their decent run of form at home, it’s easy to see why. The 9-3 hosts have won four of their last five matches at the Highmark Stadium, leaving their home record for the season at 4-1 SU. As for the New York Jets, it’s been a tough time. The 7-5 visitors have lost three of their past five games, and with the oddsmakers pricing a road win at +375, it seems taking a home win is the way to go. Take the Buffalo Bills to win @ 1.20 for the clear win on the moneyline.
The Buffalo Bills (-110) are expected to win by more than a touchdown on Sunday. The oddsmakers currently have the hosts down as -9.5 point favorites over the New York Jets in the Week 14 betting lines. The last five rounds between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets have been rather one-sided, with an average winning margin of up to 13.2 points.
The Buffalo Bills tend to play well at home against the New York Jets. Over the past five games between the two teams at the Highmark Stadium, the home side has won three games by an average margin of 12.0 points. The hosts are also 5-2 ATS in the past seven games at home and 4-5 ATS overall from their previous ten games.
The New York Jets, on the other hand, are 5-5 ATS as the underdog for this season. The visitors are 5-2 ATS from their seven most recent road trips, as well as 6-4 ATS in their last ten games overall.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last 25 games between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets produced an average of 45.6 points.
Betting on the Under (-110) seems like the smart play here, considering the two teams have averaged 41.6 points in their last five matchups, which is below the current total of 44.5.
The total has averaged 45.3 points in the Buffalo Bills’ ten most recent games, as well as 50.0 points in their last five at home. Meanwhile, betting on the over would’ve paid out as a winning bet in each of the last three games at the Highmark Stadium for the Buffalo Bills, who are 2-8 in their last ten home and away matches combined.
As for the New York Jets, the average total has been 38.1 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 33.6 points in the last five on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the New York Jets’ past ten matchups against teams from the AFC East.