Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns NFL match analysis, predictions and odds
The Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) play the Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Paycor Stadium on 11th December at 13:00. A tally of eight wins from 12 games leaves the Cincinnati Bengals with a divisional ranking of second in the AFC North, while the Cleveland Browns are third in the AFC North after collecting five victories out of a possible 12. The Cincinnati Bengals proved they’re still worthy of being a Super Bowl contender with a 27-24 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and they are favorites (-222) to take another win against Cleveland Browns.
Form Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals defied their underdog status to bag a 27-24 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in their last match, leaving them 8-2 for the last 10 matches and 4-1 in the last five at home.
The offense has continued to torment opposing defenses consistently, averaging 27.8 points in the last five matches. This leaves the Cincinnati Bengals’ tally for the season at 26.0 points overall. Surrendering 21.3 points per game leaves the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense around the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league’s defensive units.
For the Cincinnati Bengals, lifting the famous Vince Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate target. A spot in the playoffs come to the end of the regular season should be the bare minimum expected of them. After all, this is a team that finished first in the AFC North, won the AFC Championship, and came within a whisker of Super Bowl glory in the previous football season.
Form Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns went 5-7 for the season last week by defeating the Houston Texans 14-27. In their past ten matches, they’ve gone 4-6 and are also 1-4 in their last five on the road.
The Cleveland Browns continue to put up decent numbers in offense, scoring 24.4 points in their last five matches. Considering their season average is 24.2 points, this suggests the offensive unit remains as reliable as ever. A below-average defense isn’t what any traveling team wants to hear, but that’s how it is for the Cleveland Browns. The visitors have allowed a nerve-wracking 25.0 points per game this year.
Reaching the Super Bowl is the ultimate dream for the Cleveland Browns. It’s a big ask though. Not only did the visitors exit in the first round of last season’s playoffs, but they’re only 5-7 this year, and unless things pick up soon, even a postseason berth will be out of their reach.
The Cleveland Browns bagged a 32-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the previous matchup between these two franchises. The encounter took place at the FirstEnergy Stadium in October 2022. In eight of the past 25 meetings between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns the total went over 48.5 points.
In their last 25 head-to-head games, the Cincinnati Bengals managed 24.36 points on average per game, while the Cleveland Browns put 21.56 points on board.
Going with the Cincinnati Bengals (-222) on the moneyline looks too good to pass up here. In their last five matches, the hosts have bagged four wins to improve their regular season record to 8-4 SU. Odds of -222 suggest they have a win probability rate of 69% for this matchup. On the other side, the Cleveland Browns are the clear +180 underdogs. Considering they’ve lost three of their last four road trips to AFC North teams, this might not be a surprise. Take the the Cincinnati Bengals to win @ 1.45 for the clear win on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers favor the Cincinnati Bengals (-109) to win Sunday’s game, but not by much. The hosts open up as the 4.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. In the last 25 matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 12.2 points.
Taking the Cincinnati Bengals on the spread has been worth its weight in gold at home recently, with the hosts covering the spread in their last four matches at the Paycor Stadium. In their previous ten games, the Cincinnati Bengals went 9-1 ATS overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven games at home.
The past five visits to the Paycor Stadium have gone rather well for the Cleveland Browns, having bagged three wins by an average winning margin of 14.3 points. For covering the spread, the Cleveland Browns have managed to string together a fine record. They have covered the spread in their last two matchups, going 5-4 ATS in their last nine matchups in all.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last 25 games between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns produced an average of 45.92 points.
The average total in the last five encounters between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns was a staggering 55 points. As the total for their latest showdown is 48.5, it might be worth siding with the Over (-110).
The total has averaged 48.7 points in the Cincinnati Bengals’ ten most recent games, as well as 50.2 points in their last five at home. Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, the total went over in three of the last five home games for the Cincinnati Bengals. They are 4-5 against the total across their last ten games, whether home or away.
On average, the Cleveland Browns have seen 47.9 points go on board during their past ten matches and 47.4 points in their last five contests on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in half of the Cleveland Browns’ past ten matchups against teams from the AFC North.