New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL match analysis, predictions and odds
The New England Patriots (7-7) play the Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at Gillette Stadium on 24th December in Week 16 of the NFL. Going into this Week 16 matchup, the Cincinnati Bengals are in first place in the AFC North. A tally of ten wins is three more than what their opponents have managed all season, with the New England Patriots seeing victory seven times to go third in the AFC East. The Cincinnati Bengals enter the second half of the regular season with a playoff spot in their sights and a chance to prove themselves on the road against the New England Patriots, who won’t be going anywhere as things stand.
Form New England Patriots
The New England Patriots slipped to 7-7 for the season last week after falling to a 30-24 defeat against the Las Vegas Raiders. They are 6-4 across their ten most recent games and 3-2 in the past five at home.
The New England Patriots’ offensive output has had a sharp decline in numbers this season. Last year, the home side managed 26.6 points per game to rank sixth in the league, but has only put up 21.4 points in the current one. However, what the hosts lack in offense, they clearly make up for in defense, having only allowed 19.2 points on average to rank eighth in the league.
Having reached the wild card round of the playoffs last January, the New England Patriots were tipped for a repeat this year. However, unless the home side can overturn a 7-7 record before 2022 wraps up, a spot in the NFL postseason seems unlikely at this stage.
Form Cincinnati Bengals
Form is really looking good for the Cincinnati Bengals after claiming a 23-34 win against Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The victory extended their winning streak to six matches, improving their regular season record to 10-4. They are also 5-3 on the road.
Going on the road doesn’t seem to hamper the Cincinnati Bengals. They have the fifth-best offensive record away from home, averaging 24.4 points on the road and 26.4 points in their 14 regular season games. The visiting defense looks more than capable of taking on any offense at any place, having allowed just 22.3 points on the road this year to post the 10th-best away record.
For the Cincinnati Bengals, lifting the famous Vince Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate target. A spot in the playoffs come to the end of the regular season should be the bare minimum expected of them. After all, this is a team that finished first in the AFC North, won the AFC Championship, and came within a whisker of Super Bowl glory in the previous football season.
The New England Patriots won 34-13 against the Cincinnati Bengals in their most recent encounter at the Paul Brown Stadium on December 2019. Playing the Cincinnati Bengals has been a great experience for the New England Patriots in recent times with three wins on the bounce. Their total record reads 7-3 in their last ten games against the New England Patriots.
In their last ten head-to-head games, the New England Patriots managed 28.6 points on average per game, while the Cincinnati Bengals put 16.8 points on board.
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Pick the Cincinnati Bengals to win (1.57) for your moneyline bet as they should be a lock on at these odds.
The New England Patriots have had a lot of success against the Cincinnati Bengals in recent years, winning seven of the last ten matchups in this series. That said, the Cincinnati Bengals are no pushovers. They’re 13-9 in their last 22 encounters with AFC teams and are priced on the moneyline at -175, which suggests they have a 64% chance of victory at the Gillette Stadium.
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored at -175 moneyline odds while the New England Patriots are +155 underdogs on the moneyline in this matchup. Cincinnati Bengals are as high as -3.5 on the point spread at -110 odds.
Take the Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (1.91) as they are the best bet.
The Cincinnati Bengals open up as the 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots, according to the oddsmakers. This implies a tight battle is likely, with a road win possible but not by much. The ten most recent matchups in this series have seen an average points margin of 14.6 points.
The New England Patriots went 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games against AFC North teams. The offense put up 20.0 points per game in that span, while the defense allowed an average of 20.3 points. In their previous ten games, the New England Patriots went 6-4 ATS overall and 4-4 ATS in the last eight games at home.
The smart money is on the Cincinnati Bengals, who have covered the spread in their last six games. They may be on the road, but they still look too good to pass up here. In their past 10 matches, the Cincinnati Bengals went 9-1 ATS and also ended up 6-3 ATS from their nine most recent road trips.
Total over 40.0 (1.91) is the right play for this match.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last ten games between the New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals produced an average of 45.4 points.
The average total from the last five encounters between the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals was 48 points, which is more than the 40.0-point total the oddsmakers have set for Saturday’s matchup at the Gillette Stadium.
The total has averaged 39.7 points in the New England Patriots’ ten most recent games, as well as 30.4 points in their last five at home. Games at the Gillette Stadium don’t always seem to produce the expected number of points, as the total has gone under in four of the past five home matches for the home side.
The last six times the Cincinnati Bengals visited AFC East teams, the score averaged 46.2 points per game and went 2-3 against the total. Over was a winning bet three times in the past five road games for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 5-4 against the total in their last ten home and away games combined.