Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans NFL match analysis, predictions and odds
The Houston Texans (1-12-1) take to the road to face the Tennessee Titans (7-7) at the Nissan Stadium on Saturday for a Week 16 matchup. One look at each team’s records and it’s easy to see why this match is viewed as a one-sided affair. The Tennessee Titans are riding high, posting 7-7 to hold first place in the AFC South. The Houston Texans, in contrast, are fourth in the AFC South with an overall record of 1-12-1 in this regular season. A run of four straight defeats has recently hit a sorry-looking Tennessee Titans to leave their campaign hanging in the balance. Can they get back on track at the Nissan Stadium, or will the Houston Texans inflict more misery their way? Let’s check it out in this preview.
Form Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans were dealt a tough blow last week when they lost 17-14 to the Los Angeles Chargers. The defeat extended their losing streak to four games, leaving their overall record for the past 10 games at 5-5.
Things haven’t improved on the offensive line for the Tennessee Titans at all, having put just 17.8 points on board across the last five matches. In all, the offense has averaged 18.2 points for the season. On the other side of the ball, the defense has struggled to match last season’s sixth-place finish in the defensive rankings, giving up 20.9 points on average in all outings.
The Tennessee Titans are growing closer to top spot in the AFC South. Having gone 7-7 so far, they hold a six-win advantage over the Houston Texans. Another win this week will move them a step closer to their ultimate goal.
Form Houston Texans
The Houston Texans head to the Nissan Stadium on the back of a 24-30 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, leaving them 1-9 in their past ten games and 1-4 in the last five on the road.
The Houston Texans’ offense has been abysmal all season. It has put up just 16.8 points per game and they saw no improvement in the last five matches, which produced an average of 17.2 points. A below-average defense isn’t what any traveling team wants to hear, but that’s how it is for the Houston Texans. The visitors have allowed 24.6 points per game this year.
The Houston Texans have already been eliminated from playoff contention—a fact that’s all too obvious given that they have lost 12 of their 14 regular season games. Getting a strong pick in next year’s NFL draft is the best they can hope for now.
The Tennessee Titans won their last two matches against the Houston Texans. The previous matchup ended 10-17 in their favor on October 2022, while the game before that ended in a 25-28 victory on January 2022. The implied probability of a third straight win for the Tennessee Titans (-340) is at 77%. In the past five matchups, the Tennessee Titans claimed four wins against the Houston Texans to go 4-1 in this series.
One key problem the Houston Texans have struggled to fix in this series is how their defense has often floundered against the Tennessee Titans offense, having allowed 26.2 points on average in the last five matchups alone.
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Betting on the Tennessee Titans to win (1.29) on the moneyline is your safest bet – take it!
The Tennessee Titans have been on a roll against teams from the AFC South of late, winning eight of their last ten matchups in this division. They are listed as favorites to beat the Houston Texans on the moneyline at odds of -340, suggesting they have a 77% chance of a Week 16 victory. On the other side, the Houston Texans are the clear +270 underdogs. Considering they’re on a nine-match losing streak, this might not be a surprise.
The Tennessee Titans are favored at -340 moneyline odds while the Houston Texans are +270 underdogs on the Moneyline in this matchup. Tennessee Titans are as high as -7.0 on the point spread at -110 odds.
Betting on the Tennessee Titans -7.0 (1.91) is our favorite play for this matchup.
The Tennessee Titans are favored by 7 points against the Houston Texans in Week 16 betting lines. This leaves them heavy favorites to win Saturday’s matchup outright. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 8.3 points.
The Tennessee Titans went 7-3 ATS in their last ten games against AFC South teams. The offense put up 23.9 points per game in that span, while the defense allowed an average of 18.6 points. In their previous ten games, the Tennessee Titans went 6-3-1 ATS overall and 5-3 ATS in the last eight games at home.
The past five visits to the Nissan Stadium have seen the Houston Texans end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard three times, with an average losing margin of 6.7 points. The visitors are 4-4 ATS from their eight most recent road trips, as well as 4-6 ATS in their last ten games overall.
Take the Total over 39.5 (1.91) for the best over/under bet
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last ten games between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans produced an average of 49.1 points.
The average total from the last five encounters between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans was 54.4 points, which is more than the 39.5-point total the oddsmakers have set for Saturday’s matchup at the Nissan Stadium.
The score averaged 36.6 points and went 1-4 against the total in the last five AFC South matchups the Tennessee Titans played at the Nissan Stadium. Meanwhile, the last five Tennessee Titans home games went over two times, leaving the hosts with an overall 3-7 record from their last ten contests in the over/under market.
As for the Houston Texans, the average total has been 41.3 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 42.4 points in the last five on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the Houston Texans’ past nine matchups against teams from the AFC South.