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Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL match analysis, predictions and odds

The Kansas City Chiefs (12-3) play the Denver Broncos (4-11) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on 1st January in Week 17 of the NFL. Going into this AFC West matchup, the Denver Broncos sit fourth in the division with four wins from 15 matches, leaving them eight games behind the first-placed Kansas City Chiefs. The oddsmakers expect a blowout victory, pricing the Kansas City Chiefs as the 13.5-point favorites against the visiting Denver Broncos.

Form Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are on a great run of form after making it three wins in a row by beating the Seattle Seahawks 24-10 last week, leaving them 8-2 in their last 10 matches.

The Kansas City Chiefs rank second in the NFL’s offensive rankings, averaging 29.2 points this season and 24.9 points at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The defense, on the other hand, has really stepped up against opposing offenses of late. In the past five outings, the hosts have only given up 19.8 points on average. This is better than how they’ve fared over the season, having allowed 22.1 points per game in comparison.

The Kansas City Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth after winning their division. The AFC West champions now aim to improve their second seed in the AFC Conference going into the final weeks of the regular season.

Form Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos came up short against the Los Angeles Rams by slipping to a 51-14 defeat last time out. They’ve lost four in a row on the road and are 2-8 in the past ten games overall.

The Denver Broncos offense has struggled to bring its A-game this season, putting up a mere 15.5 points on average. However, while the offense has struggled to click into gear, the defense has had no such issues. The visitors have kept their opponents to an average of just 20.3 points per match, ranking as the league’s eighth-best defense.

The Denver Broncos will not be making the playoffs this season. While they were expected to struggle, being winless at 4-11 means there is little hope left for them this year. The best they can do now is focus on getting a strong pick in next year’s draft order.


The Kansas City Chiefs won by a 28-34 scoreline the last time they played the Denver Broncos at the Empower Field at Mile High, which also meant the required total of 45.0 went over. The past ten meetings have mostly gone in the Kansas City Chiefs’s favor. In total, they claimed ten wins with a total score of 10-0. Unless the Denver Broncos pull something special out of the bag, this run might well continue on Sunday.

In their past ten head-to-head games, the Kansas City Chiefs pulled off 28.6 points on average per game, whereas Denver Broncos managed 17.2 points per match.


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs odds

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to take a home win on the moneyline at -855, while the Denver Broncos are the +575 underdogs for this matchup. On the point spread, the Kansas City Chiefs are as high as -13.5 with odds of -110.

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Moneyline (ML): Denver Broncos +575 | Kansas City Chiefs -855


Take the Kansas City Chiefs to win (1.12) as they look like a sure thing on the moneyline here.

The Kansas City Chiefs seem to relish going up against AFC West opposition, especially at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The 6-1 hosts have won four of their last five home matchups against AFC West teams. Odds of -855 suggests they have a 90% chance of adding another victory to their haul in Week 17. On the other side, the Denver Broncos are the clear +575 underdogs. Considering they’ve lost five of their last five road trips to AFC West teams, this might not be a surprise.

This match has the makings of a straight win for the Kansas City Chiefs. They went 9-1 S/U against AFC West teams last season, which was much better than the 1-9 record posted by the Denver Broncos. Take the Kansas City Chiefs (-855) for the win.


Back the Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 (1.91) for the best chance of a payout.

The oddsmakers have made the Kansas City Chiefs the 13.5-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, clearly indicating that they believe that a home win is the most probable outcome. The ten most recent matchups in this series have seen an average points margin of 11.4 points.

Take the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the spread as it paid off beautifully in their last three home matches, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover it again on Sunday. The hosts are also 5-4 ATS in the past nine games at home and 4-6 ATS overall from their previous ten games.

The past ten games against AFC West opposition saw the Denver Broncos end up 4-6 ATS. During that span, the offense produced 19.4 points per game and the defense allowed an average of 25.5 points. The visitors are 3-6 ATS from their nine most recent road trips, as well as 5-5 ATS in their last ten games overall.


Bet the Total over 45.0 (1.91) for this game.

The last ten games between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos offered a decent average of 45.8 points on the board.

The current total on the Week 17 betting line for this matchup is 45.0 points, which is under the 48.4 points average seen in the past five rounds the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos have played out, but not by much either.

The total has gone under in eight of Kansas City Chiefs’ last nine games at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Meanwhile, the last five Kansas City Chiefs home games all went under, leaving the home side with an overall 4-6 record from their last ten contests in the over/under market.

The score finished 2-3 against the total and averaged 39.6 points in the most recent AFC West matchups the Denver Broncos played away from home. Interestedly, the Denver Broncos have seen the total go over in each of their last ten matchups.

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