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Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans NFL match analysis, predictions and odds

The Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1) welcome the Houston Texans (2-13-1) over to the Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for a Week 18 matchup. With four wins from 16 games, the Indianapolis Colts hold third in the AFC South, while the two-win visitors Houston Texans sit fourth in the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans may be out of the playoff hunt, but a win here could be just the boost they need to go out on a high note.

Form Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are having a tough time at the moment. They lost 38-10 to the New York Giants last week and now enter their latest game at the Lucas Oil Stadium on the back of a four-match home losing streak. Their overall record for the last 10 games is 1-9.

The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive output has had a sharp decline in numbers this season. Last year, the home side managed 26.5 points per game to rank ninth in the league, but has only put up 16.1 points in the current one. On the other side of the ball, the defense has struggled to match last season’s ninth-place finish in the defensive rankings, giving up 24.7 points on average in all outings.

Unfortunately, the Indianapolis Colts are already eliminated from playoff contention. While expectations weren’t high going into this regular season, the 4-11-1 hosts are already down and out. Locking onto a strong pick in the NFL draft order is the best they can hope for now.

Form Houston Texans

The Houston Texans made a swift return to losing ways last time out by slipping to a 3-31 defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars, leaving them 1-9 from the past ten games overall and 1-4 in the last five on the road.

The Houston Texans offense has struggled to bring its A-game this season, putting up a mere 16.1 points on average. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The visitors have given up 25.8 points in the previous five outings, which is more or less on par with the 24.3 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

The Houston Texans have already been eliminated from playoff contention—a fact that’s all too obvious given that they have lost 13 of their 16 regular season games. Getting a strong pick in next year’s NFL draft is the best they can hope for now.


Not even overtime could separate the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans last time out. The two teams settled for a rare 20-20 tie in 11 September 2022 at the NRG Stadium. It caused the two-way moneyline bets to be pushed, meaning all bettors in this market were refunded with no winnings. In the past five matchups, the Indianapolis Colts claimed four wins against the Houston Texans to go 4-0-1 in this series.

While the Indianapolis Colts averaged 26.1 points, the Houston Texans performed an average of 17.1 points in their ten most recent head-to-head games.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts odds

Odds for Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts is Provided by Bet365. For a full list of odds for the match visit Bet365.com

  • Moneyline (ML): Houston Texans (+125) | Indianapolis Colts (-145)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Houston Texans +2.5 (-110) | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 38.0 (-110) | (-110)

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You should take the Indianapolis Colts to win (1.69) as they look too good to pass up on the moneyline.

The Indianapolis Colts have had a lot of success against the Houston Texans in recent years, winning seven of the last ten matchups in this series. Chances of a follow-up on Sunday are rated at 59%, with a home win priced at -145 on the moneyline. On the other side, the Houston Texans are the clear underdogs at +125. The visitors are currently 1-4 SU on the road after losing four of their past five road trips.

Sunday’s game is a perfect get-right spot for the Indianapolis Colts, who will be looking to send a message after their loss last game against the New York Giants.

Against the Spread

Place your bets on the Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (1.91) for this game.

Oddsmakers favor the Indianapolis Colts to win Sunday’s game, but not by much. The hosts open up as 2.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 7.1 points.

Going against the spread with the Indianapolis Colts hasn’t been a smart move of late, with the team failing to cover in four of the previous five games. The hosts are also 4-5 ATS in the past nine games at home and 3-7 ATS overall from their previous ten games.

The past five visits to the Lucas Oil Stadium have seen the Houston Texans end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard four times, with an average losing margin of 12.8 points. In their past 10 matches, the Houston Texans went 4-6 ATS and ended up 5-4 ATS from their nine most recent road trips.


Taking the Total over 38.0 (1.91) is the smart pick for this showdown.

Judging by a points average of 43.2 points from the last ten matchups of this series, the total should land somewhere between 40 and 45 points for the latest encounter between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.

The current total on the Week 18 betting line for this matchup is 38.0 points, which is under the 39.6 points average seen in the past five rounds the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have played out, but not by much either.

Siding with the over paid out on the betting line in four of the last five games involving the Indianapolis Colts. Looking back on the last five games on home soil for the Indianapolis Colts, the total went over two times. They are 5-5 against the total overall from their previous ten matches.

The score finished 1-4 against the total and averaged 33.4 points in the most recent AFC South matchups the Houston Texans played away from home. The under market has paid out as the winning bet in each of the Houston Texans’ last ten games.

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