In the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs, the Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face off against the Miami Dolphins (9-8) on Sunday. As AFC East champions, the Buffalo Bills earned the right to host this matchup as a second seed in the AFC with 13 regular season wins, four more than the seventh-seeded Miami Dolphins. Confidence is high for the Buffalo Bills heading into their playoff opener. The hosts won this stage last year, and with home-field advantage on their side, hope to reach the divisional round again. The Miami Dolphins take to the road hoping to get back on track in their playoff opener following a poor end to their regular season.
Form Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills closed the regular season with seven wins in a row by beating the New England Patriots 35-23 last week, leaving them 8-2 in their last 10 matches.
From 16 games this season, the Buffalo Bills have scored a solid 28.4 points on average. This gives them bragging rights as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses. Defensively, the hosts have the second-best unit of all 32 teams, allowing just 17.9 points on average and 18.4 points on their own ground.
The Buffalo Bills earned their place in the playoffs with a 13-3 season. They finished first in the AFC East and took second seed in the AFC Conference. While it will be difficult, this is a team that has shown it can go deep into January.
Form Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins ended their regular season by snapping out of a losing streak by beating the New York Jets 11-6, leaving their current record from the past ten games at 5-5. They are also 1-4 in the last five on the road.
Unfortunately, the Miami Dolphins offense hasn’t performed to its usual standards of late. In the last five matches, the offensive unit has only put up 19.6 points on average, which is someway off this season’s tally of 23.4 points. On the other side, the defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, giving up 23.5 points per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins earned the right to be in the playoffs after a 9-8 season. The visitors finished second in the AFC East and took the seventh seed in the AFC Conference, which could make them dangerous come postseason time.
The Buffalo Bills won 32-29 against the Miami Dolphins in their most recent encounter at the Highmark Stadium on December 2022. In the past five matchups, the Buffalo Bills claimed four wins against the Miami Dolphins to go 4-1 in this series.
In their last ten head-to-head games, the Buffalo Bills managed 32.6 points on average per game, while the Miami Dolphins put 19.4 points on board.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills odds
Odds for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills is Provided by Bet365. For a full list of odds for the match visit Bet365.com
- Moneyline (ML): Miami Dolphins (+475) | Buffalo Bills (-654)
- Against the spread (ATS): Miami Dolphins +10.5 (-110) | Buffalo Bills -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (-110) | (-110)
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Pick the Buffalo Bills to win (1.15) for your moneyline bet as they should be a lock on at these odds.
A Buffalo Bills win returns odds of -654, implying there is an 87% chance of a payout on Sunday. The 13-3 hosts have won four of their last five matches at the Highmark Stadium to go 7-1 SU with home-field advantage this season. On the other hand, a Miami Dolphins win is priced at +475, with the visitors 3-6 on the road and 9-8 overall for this season.
The Buffalo Bills have rallied off seven straight wins, so it’s no surprise that they are favored over Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins have struggled on defense, allowing an average of 23.5 points per game which may justify a spread as high as-10.5
Against the Spread
Go for the Buffalo Bills -10.5 (1.91) if you’re looking for a safe bet.
The Buffalo Bills are expected to win by more than a touchdown on Sunday. The oddsmakers currently have the hosts down as 10.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins in the betting line. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 10.9 points.
In their most recent games against AFC East opponents, the Buffalo Bills went 7-5 ATS. Their offense managed 20.5 points per game in that stretch, while the defense gave up 21.2 points on average. The hosts are also 6-4 ATS in the past ten games at home and 4-6 ATS overall from their previous ten games.
The past five visits to the Highmark Stadium have seen the Miami Dolphins end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard five times, with an average losing margin of 16.6 points. In their past 10 matches, the Miami Dolphins went 6-4 ATS and ended up 5-5 ATS from their ten most recent road trips.
Total over 44.5 (1.91) is the right play for this match.
The Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins have a history of impressive offensive performances against each other. In fact, they’ve averaged 52 points per game in their last ten matchups together.
The average total from the last five meetings between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins was 51 points, 6.5 points higher than 44.5—the number set by the oddsmakers for Sunday’s contest at the Highmark Stadium.
When betting on the total in Buffalo Bills games, consider that each of their last three matches went over. The Buffalo Bills have seen four of the past five home games going over. In fact, when looking back on their last 10 matches (both at home and away), they are 5-5 in the over and under betting line.
In six of the seven most recent matches on the road for the Miami Dolphins, the total went over. Impressively, the total has gone over in no less than four of the last five games on the road for the Miami Dolphins. All in all, they are 6-4 in the over/under when looking back on their past 10 games home and away.