Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL match analysis, predictions and odds
The GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium will host an AFC divisional playoff game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars this coming Saturday. In the wild-card round, The fourth-ranked Jacksonville Jaguars knocked the Los Angeles Chargers out by a 31-30 score, while the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs had a first-round bye. Earlier in the season, the Kansas City Chiefs downed the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-17 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll hope a similar performance on Saturday will send them to the AFC Championship Game. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, look to assert themselves as a genuine Super Bowl threat by taking a road win.
Form Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have a week off before their first playoff game. They beat the Las Vegas Raiders 13-31 in their regular-season finale, giving them an impressive 14-3 record over their past 10 games and a 7-1 mark at home.
The Kansas City Chiefs are putting away 29.2 points per game this season and 25.1 points at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which ranks them among the league’s best offenses. The home defense allows an average of 21.7 points per game, putting it right around the middle of the pack when compared to other teams’ defensive units.
After an 14-3 regular season and a first-round bye, the Kansas City Chiefs begin their playoff run. The hosts took the top seed in the AFC Conference and won the AFC West. Now, with a full week’s rest behind them, they look to make a statement at home for their Super Bowl quest.
Form Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars upset the odds last week to beat the Los Angeles Chargers, winning 31-30 to improve their record over their last 10 games to 8-2. They are also 3-2 in their last five on the road.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offensive line has improved leaps and bounds since posting a mere 14.9 points per game last season, ranking tenth in the NFL with 24.2 points this year. The defense, on the other hand, has really stepped up against opposing offenses of late. In the past five outings, the visitors have only given up 17.2 points on average. This is better than how they’ve fared over the season, having allowed 21.1 points per game in comparison.
The Jacksonville Jaguars had an excellent regular season, culminating in their victory of the AFC South. They took the fourth seed in the AFC Conference following an 10-8 season. They look to continue on their path toward a Super Bowl title on the road.
The Kansas City Chiefs won 27-17 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their most recent encounter at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 2022. The past ten meetings have mostly gone in the Kansas City Chiefs’ favor. In total, they claimed seven wins with a total score of 7-3. Unless the Jacksonville Jaguars pull something special out of the bag, this run might well continue on Saturday.
The Kansas City Chiefs tallied 26.5 points on average per game from their ten most recent head-to-head games against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The latter managed an average of 18.6 points in comparison.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs odds
Odds for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs is Provided by Bet365. For a full list of odds for the match visit Bet365.com
- Moneyline (ML): Jacksonville Jaguars (+350) | Kansas City Chiefs (-450)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jacksonville Jaguars +9.0 (-110) | Kansas City Chiefs -9.0 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (-110) | (-110)
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Take the Kansas City Chiefs to win (1.22) as they look like a sure thing on the moneyline here.
The Kansas City Chiefs are riding a five-game winning streak heading into this divisional playoff. The hosts are 14-3 for the season and 7-1 at home. One team that has given the Jacksonville Jaguars a lot of trouble are the Kansas City Chiefs, with the visitors on a six-match losing run in this series.
Backing the Kansas City Chiefs (-450) to win outright on the moneyline looks too good to pass up. The hosts were strong at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium last season with a 9-3 record, and have won five of the last five home games.
Against the Spread
Back the Jacksonville Jaguars +9.0 (1.91) for the best chance of a payout.
The oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs pinned down as the 9-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, leaving the hosts as the clear-cut choice for the win. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 11.7 points.
The Kansas City Chiefs tend to play well at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over the past five games between the two teams at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the home side has won four games by an average margin of 13.3 points. In their previous ten games, the Kansas City Chiefs went 4-6 ATS overall and 5-5 ATS in the last ten games at home.
In recent matchups against AFC West opponents, the Jacksonville Jaguars went 5-7 ATS. Their offense averaged 18.9 points per game during that span, and the defense gave up 20.9 points on average. The visitors are 4-6 ATS from their ten most recent road trips, as well as 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall.
Total under 52.5 (1.91) is the right play for this match.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last ten games between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars produced an average of 45.1 points.
The betting line for Saturday’s game in the over/under market is set at 52.5 points. This is 9.1 points higher than the 43.4-point average seen from the past five meetings of this series.
The total has averaged 47.0 points in the Kansas City Chiefs’ ten most recent games, as well as 40.4 points in their last five at home. The last five Kansas City Chiefs home games went over one times, leaving the home side with an overall 4-6 record from their last ten contests in the over/under market.
On average, the Jacksonville Jaguars have seen 48.5 points go on board during their past ten matches and 42.4 points in their last five contests on the road. In nine of the previous 12 times the Jacksonville Jaguars played in January, the total went under.